ANALISIS METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DENGAN BROWN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA STUDI KASUS MEMPREDIKSI KUANTITI PENJUALAN PRODUK FARMASIDI APOTEK

Rendra Gustriansyah

Abstract


Prediksi kuantiti penjualan produk di masa depan dimaksudkan untuk mengendalikan jumlah stok produk yang ada, agar kekurangan atau kelebihan stok produk dapat diminimalkan. Ketika kuantiti penjualan dapat diprediksi dengan akurat maka pemenuhan permintaan konsumen dapat diusahakan tepat waktu dan kerjasama perusahaan dengan relasi tetap terjaga dengan baik sehingga perusahaan dapat terhindar dari kehilangan penjualan maupun konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis akurasi prediksi kuantiti penjualan produk farmasi di apotek dengan menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dibandingkan dengan menggunakan metode Brown Exponential Smoothing (BES), sehingga akan diperoleh metode yang lebih akurat untuk memprediksi kuantiti penjualan produk farmasi di apotek. Persentase nilai kesalahan prediksi merupakan kriteria terpenting dalam menganalisis akurasi prediksi dari kedua metode ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa persentase rata-rata kesalahan prediksi kuantiti penjualan produk farmasi menggunakan metode SES dengan nilai parameter smoothing α=0.5 merupakan metode yang memiliki akurasi prediksi yang paling tinggi (MAPE=1.14%) dibandingkan dengan menggunakan metode BES

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